Turkish scientist Akıncı, who has been working on earthquake hazard for many years within the body of INGV, Italy’s authority on earthquakes, evaluated the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes and their effects and the possible Istanbul earthquake in his office at the institute.

Akıncı, who completed his higher education at the Department of Geophysical Engineering at 9 Eylül University, said that a group of Italian researchers in the USA, where he went with TÜBİTAK scholarships after his doctorate, showed an interest in the earthquake hazard issue that he was working on.

Expressing that he came to Italy as part of a project and stayed here, Akıncı said, “Of course, it’s a long process, but I never got bored. I continue my career today with that will, as if I started my job yesterday. Of course, the priority of work is the earthquakes in Italy. I try to study earthquakes in our country whenever I get the chance. And that is because it is such a desire in my heart. If I find time and contribute, of course, what can we do to understand the earthquakes there, to find solutions, and to minimize earthquake damage, which is the subject I am working on, scientifically.” used the phrases.

“Next week a group of researchers will travel to Turkey”

Expressing that Turkey, a country that has experienced major earthquakes in its history due to its geographical location, has an experience in this regard, Akıncı continued as follows:

“Of course, these last Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, unfortunately the last one we know is the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.8, which is roughly the biggest earthquake after that. But this earthquake has a feature different from the Erzincan earthquake: Multiple factors are involved. Different segments It was broken in 24 hours by two major earthquakes, that is, earthquakes of 7.5 and above. Of course, this is not a classic type of earthquake that we experience all the time.”

Assoc. Dr. Akıncı stated that the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes aroused great interest among scientists in terms of both the impact it created, the area affected and the size of the damage, and the mechanism of the earthquake’s formation.

Stating that the interest in question was not limited to scientists, Akıncı said, “There was a great demand from many people, journalists and the media in Italy to get information about this issue. They worked here as well.” said.

Expressing that there are groups that want to study this earthquake in detail, Akıncı said, “A group of researchers will travel to Turkey next week. They will hold talks in Ankara and in the field. Whatever we can do, joint studies, scientific studies, ‘what can our contributions be?’ Two different delegations will travel to Turkey to meet. he said.

“This is not something that happens very often”

Aybige Akıncı stated that there has been silence in the region for a long time, but they did not expect an earthquake of this magnitude. It is very unlikely that it will be effective in an area of ​​​​kilometers. Maraş earthquakes are not the type of earthquake we experience very often. It was an earthquake-triggering earthquake. It broke segments of different lengths above 3 in 24 hours. It created two major earthquakes. One is 7.8, the other is 7. It is two big earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5, occurring 9 hours apart. Frankly, this is not an event that we experience very often.” made its assessment.

“Displacements close to 10 meters in the region have created fractures”

Asked what his measurements of displacement are in the region after 2 months of the earthquake, Akıncı answered as follows:

“Of course, this Arabian plate is moving northward at a speed of 10 millimeters a year. If this 10 millimeter displacement does not occur, it will continue to accumulate with a certain earthquake. So when it accumulates 100 years, 200 years later, how will this energy come out? In that region, It will come out with a 5 or 10 meter shift. And that’s how it happened. Kahramanmaraş earthquakes were formed in this way. Energy has accumulated in that region. For a long time, the region has not been able to release its energy. And with these recent earthquakes, it has released its energy and displacements close to 10 meters in the region broke out. created.”

Possible Istanbul earthquake

Expressing that Turkey is actually mostly focused on the earthquake that is likely to happen near Istanbul, Akıncı said, “There was a reason for this. Because the increase in the benefit stress after the 1999 earthquake, especially in the middle Marmara-Çınarcık segments, increased the probability of these segments breaking. These segments are 7 and 7′. will produce earthquakes above . Because these are long segments.” he said.

Emphasizing that the magnitude of the earthquake is proportional to the size of the fault, Akıncı said, “There are relations between these. Based on these, the probability of significant earthquakes, earthquakes greater than 7, which I call important, is high in Marmara.” said.

Explaining that they have a joint work with Tom Parsons, an expert from the US Geological Survey (USGS), examining the rupture possibilities of segments in the Marmara Sea, Akıncı said, “The fault segments and faults there were studied again within the framework of the last European project. Using this new data, we collaborated with some of our colleagues at INGV. We did a study. And in the probability calculations we made using this new data, we calculated the probability of an earthquake above 7 to be in the Marmara Sea as 47 percent.” made its assessment.

Akıncı stated that this is a high value and said, “What should we do? We know okay, there is a 50 percent probability, there will be an earthquake in the Marmara Sea with a high probability. The important thing is that we have to be prepared for this earthquake now. We gave the information. After this information, we should talk about it now.” “We need to abandon probability calculations. In the last century, there have been 16 earthquakes over 7 in Turkey. So the situation is very clear.” made the warning.

Tsunami risk

When asked about the level of the risk of tsunami after earthquakes in Marmara or the Mediterranean, Akıncı stated that there have been tsunamis in the Mediterranean in history and said, “For example, in the last Samos earthquake, there was a tsunami around İzmir and Kuşadası. There was a tsunami, albeit a small one. “There are tsunami data observed, which are due to landslides occurring in the sea. There are important depressions in the Marmara, depending on the geological position in the region. These holes are large enough to cause landslides after an earthquake. These can create tsunamis.” gave the answer.

Saying that Italians are asked to compare these recent earthquakes in Turkey with those in Italy, since he has lived in Italy for many years and is an earthquake expert from Turkey, Akıncı said, “They ask, ‘Can we wait in Italy, too?'” said.

Noting that such a thing is not possible, Akıncı concluded his words as follows:

“Because the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in Turkey are left-lateral strike-slip faults. That is, the fault mechanism is completely different, compared to the fault mechanisms in Italy. The faulting in Italy is normal type faulting. These are more close to the formation mechanism of earthquakes in our Aegean Region. Natural magnitude. In terms of earthquakes, there have been 7 and more earthquakes in Italy in history. However, the intervals of their occurrence are much longer. Because the slip rates and displacement rates are much lower. But there are important earthquakes in Italy with longer recurrence intervals. The risk that the earthquake will create is more important than its size.”

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